Reviewing the apps in the iPhone AppStore that have reached Top of Category between 11/1/2008 and 6/1/2009 shows that the number of days from launch of the application to the day it first reached the top slot was most common to be one week, and most likely within 30 days of it's inital release. Outside that, it is decidely unlikely that it will ever be able to get enough exposure to reach the top slot. These numbers point directly to the issues of discoverablilty, as the first week is where you may show up in "what's new" or be on the first page or two of an iTunes browse of category. Once a user has to start searching for your application, you may not achieve enough critical mass to make it to the top. That said, there is a long enough tail to show that there are still some applications that have used external marketing or word of mouth to beat the odds.
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